Monday, October 11, 2010

2010 NFL Predictions - Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers weren't able to build on their 12-4 NFC South title season of 2008. They won just eight games last season as quarterback Jake Delhomme held the offense back with his turnover problems. The Panthers said goodbye to their long time quarterback this offseason, and now they will turn to fourth-year signal caller Matt Moore, who led the Panthers to four wins in five games in last year's stretch run. More than anything else, the Panthers need Moore to make smart decisions with the football as running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams carry the offensive load.


The Panthers typically play good defense, and their performance in 2009 was no exception, but now they are about to experience life without stud pass rusher Julius Peppers.


Offense: Bookend tackles Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah, and Ryan Kalil (center) and Travelle Wharton (left guard), are all key pieces to one of the NFL's best run-blocking units. These guys do the heavy lifting while Stewart and Williams get all the glory. Thanks in part to the boys up front, this dynamic running back duo is perhaps the best in the NFL. Last season, Stewart and Williams combined for 2,250 yards and 17 scores, and both players averaged over five yards per tote. As a result, Carolina boasted the third-best running attack in the entire league.


The running game is certainly Carolina's bread and butter, but the Panthers will have to throw the football more effectively in 2010 if they hope to improve on last year's record. The Panthers finished No. 27 in the league in passing offense in 2009, averaging just 174.9 yards per game. Delhomme was throwing interceptions at such a high rate that the coaching staff completely lost faith in the passing game.


The Panthers are hoping that Moore can pick up where he left off last season. They don't need him to be great, just good. The Panthers will certainly take his 2009 performance when he completed 62 percent of his throw for 1,053 yards and eight touchdowns with two interceptions in limited action.


When the Panthers do take to the air, Moore will be looking to hook up with No. 1 wideout Steve Smith. In a down year, Smith still hauled in 65 passes for 982 yards and seven scores.


Defense: Carolina was one of 11 teams to give up less than 20 points per game in 2009. Of those teams, only two failed to make the playoffs. Had the offense been better, Carolina would have had a great opportunity to punch its playoff ticket for a second straight season.


The Panthers were one of the better defensive teams on the all-important third down. They ranked No. 7 in the NFL in third down defense, only giving up the first down 35.5 percent of the time.


This Panthers could slip on third now that Peppers is in the Windy City. His pass rushing ability was crucial on that down last season. Peppers is the Panthers' all-time sacks leader. They're really going to miss a guy that recorded double-digit sacks year in and year out, especially since no one else on the roster had more than five last season.


While I'm not sure who is going to step up to provide some heat on the quarterback (maybe Tyler Brayton), I am sure that the Panthers will need even more leadership and stellar play out of Jon Beason, Thomas Davis and Chris Gamble to help make up for such a huge loss.


Prediction: 3rd NFC South - The Saints, Falcons and Panthers will all contend for the division title in what is becoming one of the NFL's toughest divisions. Any of these three teams can win it, but right now the Panthers look to be a little behind the other two. The NFL is a quarterback's league, and the Falcons and the Saints both have Pro Bowl-caliber signal callers. Be sure to check out my 2010 NFL predictions to see which team I have winning the division.


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Sunday, October 10, 2010

Is This the Best Rookie Class Ever?

Is this one of the best rookie classes of all time? I can't say for sure, but I know this class of rookies definitely has the most Fantasy Football value that I can remember in a long time. We have a QB who is playing like a seasoned veteran, a running back who is #1 runner right now for fantasy, and a receiver who is 7th in the league in receptions. I will list some of the impact rookies and their fantasy value. The overall draft choice will be in parentheses.


QUATERTBACK:


Matt Ryan (3)- He has to be the leading candidate for R.O.Y. Atlanta drafted him with the third overall pick and he has been better than advertised. The best part is that because of him, no one thinks about Mike Vick anymore. After week 10, he is the eleventh overall QB for standard fantasy scoring. He would make a GREAT backup and I would not be hesitant to make him my starter, if needed. He has some very nice weapons with Turner and Roddy White and I look for him to continue to progress all season. Ryan is going to be a future stud.


Joe Flacco (18)- What a pleasant surprise he has been for Baltimore. A lot or Ravens players wanted Troy Smith to be the starter on opening day, but Baltimore went with the rookie. The Ravens actually traded up on draft day to take Flacco with the 18th overall pick, out of Delaware. They obviously saw something that they liked. And they have to be happy with the results so far. With Flacco at QB, Baltimore actually has a vertical passing game which they haven't had in years. (ever?) He is making nice decisions and is doing more than just managing the game. Derrick Mason is clearly benefiting from this and so with M. Clayton. Flacco is currently the 15th overall QB and is available on most waiver wires right now. Pick him for depth.


RUNNING BACK:


Matt Forte (44)- Forte is the # 1 running back in standard PPR scoring. The Bears got themselves a keeper in Forte. He was most likely drafted in the 6th round or later in fantasy football leagues. So, anyone who is lucky enough to own him got an absolute steal. He also has a great strength of schedule the rest of the way. So continue to start him in confidence. The Bears will continue to get him the rock. I would list him as a close 2nd to Ryan for R.O.Y.


Chris Johnson (24)- He and LenDale White have been a dynamic duo for Tennessee. Johnson is so explosive and can take it to the house at any time. Even though he is in a time share, Johnson is still the 7th overall running back for fantasy. It does seem like he can be a future superstar. The only question mark with him is if he can hold up being an every down back. That remains to be seen. But he will remain very solid for the remainder of this season based on the combination that Tennessee loves to run the ball and the high upside that he brings every week.


Steve Slayton (89)- Slayton was drafted with the 89th overall pick out of West Virginia. In most fantasy leagues, he was either undrafted or went very, very late. Both the Texans and whoever drafted him for fantasy, got great value. He was more than likely drafted as your 4th or 5th running back, so you should have great depth. Hopefully you traded one of your higher, underperforming running backs to upgrade at another position. He is worthy of starting as a RB2 or a great flex option. Slayton will continue to be productive in this potent Texans offense. He is the 14th overall back in PPR leagues. The only question mark with Slayton is if he will be able to hold up for an entire season. He is on the small side. We will see.


Tim Hightower (149)- Anyone who ended up drafting Edgerin James hopefully was smart enough to handcuff him with Hightower. The Cardinals have decided to roll with Hightower now and put Edge on the bench. They won't look back. Hightower has much more burst than Edge and that is what this potent offense needed in a running back. He also runs very hard, which is the reason Arizona decided to make him their goal-line back. Feel free to start him with confidence for the rest of the season. He makes a decent RB2 or a great flex player for most. He is the running back of the future for the Cardinals.


Felix Jones (22)- Dallas went after Jones in the draft and it looks like a wise move. Marion Barber has been the workhorse for the Cowboys, but Jones is a great change of pace back. He also has been very valuable to their return game. Jones looks to be returning from his injury soon, possibly even this week. Dallas could really use his speed. Jones is a must-handcuff if you own Barber and has some nice keeper value also. It looks like he will be a solid back down the road.


Jonathan Stewart (13)- He is another back that is in a serious time-share with Deangelo Williams. He does look to have a nice future though in the NFL. He has some nice speed and looks to be a complete back. Right now, the Panthers seem to be favoring the physical running of Williams more though. Stewart still has nice value though for fantasy. He is more of a fill-in/flex play right now, but that could change quickly if Williams were to stumble or get injured.


Darren McFadden (4), Rashard Mendenhall (23), Ryan Torain (139)- These three backs all have been plagued by injuries. McFadden had 1 good game all season (against the Chiefs) and Torain only played one half of a game all season. Torain did look rather good in that half and looked to be the back of choice for the Broncos. Overall the jury is still out on all 3 of them. I must say that McFadden has looked like somewhat of a bust. He doesn't have much speed and doesn't really look special, like a top 5 pick should. I would rather have most of the backs listed above over McFadden. I was very high on Torain and so were the Denver Broncos. They said that he could have won the starting job in the preseason before he got injured. Then when he comes back, he blew out his knee in the first game. Mendenhall looked good before his season ending surgery, minus his small case of the fumbles.


WIDE RECEIVER:


Eddie Royal (42)- Royal is the 10th overall wide receiver in PPR leagues. He has been clearly benefiting from all of the attention that Brandon Marshall demands, and he has been flourishing. Royal flashes a great combination of speed and good hands. He looks like he has what it takes to be a #1 receiver down the road. Royal went undrafted in a lot of fantasy leagues, or very late. He deserves to be starting for you now. He is a very solid #3 receiver, with the possibility of even more in PPR leagues.


DeSean Jackson (49)- Jackson has blazing speed and playmaking ability that the Eagles were lacking at wide receiver. He was great for them early in the season while the Eagles were minus their 2 top receivers. He continues to be a nice play as McNabb likes to spread the ball around. They also get him involved in reverses and punt returns. Jackson will remain to be a decent # 3 receiver or very good depth.


Donnie Avery (33)- Avery has been a very nice surprise for the Rams. He also is benefiting from the attention that Holt was demanding. It seems that he snuck up on some teams, but they are aware now. Avery has a very nice future in the NFL. He has great speed and is another playmaker. He is a nice fill-in or matchup player for your fantasy team. He can also fill in at the flex position.


If I had a vote for Rookie of the Year; this is how I would rank the top 5 as of right now:
1) Matt Ryan
2) Matt Forte
3) Chris Johnson
4) Joe Flacco
5) Eddie Royal


Honorable Mention: Slayton, Hightower, F. Jones


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Saturday, October 9, 2010

Carolina Panthers 2010 - Strength of Schedule, Futures Odds and Predictions

There has never been a repeat champion of the NFC South Division and the Carolina Panthers were the victims of the South curse last season, following up their 2008 12-4 record and division title with an 8-8 finish and no playoffs last year. And really that 8-8 record was a bit misleading because Carolina had to win its final three games to manage a .500 mark.


Jake Delhomme's turnover-plagued 2008 postseason continued on into 2009 leading Matt Moore, who led the mini-resurgence late in the year, to eventually replace him. Moore is now the starter until 2010 NFL Draft pick Jimmy Clausen is ready, while Delhomme is now a Cleveland Brown. The Panthers ranked just 27th in the NFL in passing last season and may not be much better this year with some major receiver questions outside of Steve Smith, who himself is recovering from a broken arm. Dwayne Jarrett seems likely to start opposite Smith.


But let there be no doubt: this will be a run-heavy team behind DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, arguably the NFL's best running back tandem. Thanks to those two, the Panthers led the NFC in rushing last year and were third overall. Stewart and Williams became the sixth pair of teammates in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards in the same season.


The defense could take a big hit this season as star defensive end Julius Peppers left as a free agent for the Bears - meaning only one defensive line starter is back from last season. And linebacker Thomas Davis, the team's best pass-rushing linebacker, was lost for the season this summer with a torn ACL.


Carolina coach John Fox has never coached two playoff teams in a row at Carolina. If that streak runs to three, look for Fox to be gone and the team to try and lure Bill Cowher out of retirement.


The oddsmakers put Carolina's 2010 NFL season wins total at 'over/under' 7.5. Let's break down the 2010 Carolina Panthers schedule:


Week 1: Sunday, Sep. 12, at NY Giants, 1:00 PM


Week 2: Sunday, Sep. 19, Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM


Week 3: Sunday, Sep. 26, Cincinnati, 1:00 PM


Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 3, at New Orleans, 1:00 PM


Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 10, Chicago, 1:00 PM


Week 6: BYE


Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 24, San Francisco, 1:00 PM


Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 31, at St. Louis, 1:00 PM


Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 7, New Orleans, 1:00 PM


Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 14, at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM


Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 21, Baltimore, 1:00 PM


Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 28, at Cleveland, 1:00 PM


Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 5, at Seattle, 4:15 PM


Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 12, Atlanta, 1:00 PM


Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 19, Arizona, 1:00 PM


Week 16: Thursday, Dec. 23, at Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM


Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 2, at Atlanta, 1:00 PM


This is ranked as the seventh-easiest schedule in the NFL this season, with an opponents' 2009 winning percentage of.477 (122-134). Carolina has just five games against playoff teams from last season - it helps that only one NFC South team (Saints) made it.


The Giants will no doubt be out for revenge in the grand opening of the New Meadowlands Stadium as Carolina crushed the G-Men in Week 16 last year in the final of the old Giants Stadium. The Panthers have opened as seven-point underdogs.


Carolina really needs to be strong in the next five games because that stretch likely will determine its NFL betting lines with four of the games at home and only one against a playoff team from last year (Cincinnati) although the Bears and Niners could be in 2010. Should be interesting to see what Peppers does against Panthers star tackle Jordan Gross in that Chicago game.


That next three-game stretch also isn't that bad. Sure, the Saints are defending champs, but Carolina gave them trouble last year, winning the season finale at home (when New Orleans had zip to play for). Carolina has have won 11 of its last 15 against the Saints and hasn't been swept by them since 2001. The Panthers swept the Bucs last year and are 11-3 against them since 2003. The Rams haven't won at home since midway through the 2008 season.


Baltimore will be tough to beat before the Panthers could see Delhomme when they go to Cleveland on Nov. 28, although if Delhomme plays like he did last year he'll be benched by then. That matchup with Arizona is strangely the ninth year in the past 10 these two have played. Carolina has won six consecutive regular-season games over the Cardinals.


It's clear not much is expected of Carolina considering its only prime-time schedule game is that Week 16 matchup in Pittsburgh. The Panthers aren't a very good cold-weather team so it's hard to see them winning there.


If Matt Moore is just OK, this schedule really seems quite easy. I'd say that eight wins is probably very doable and that 'over' 7.5 seems like a lock, although the NFL Power Rankings indicate this is not a playoff team.


Doc Moseman is one of the pioneers of college football and the NFL Handicapping industry. Check out his Web site for up-to -the-minute NFL Odds and his famous winning college football and NFL picks.

Friday, October 8, 2010

NFL Draft Spotlight by Team - #19 Pick by the Atlanta Falcons

#19 - Atlanta Falcons - C.J. Spiller - Clemson


Taking a RB in the first round seems a little risky, when this team could probably use more help at defense to go against the New Orleans Saints. CJ Spiller could provide the speed to complement the power of Michael Turner. Jerious Norwood hasn't played as well as the team expected in 2009 when his average dipped below 5 yards/carry for the first time. The team needs a two headed monster at RB to try to keep up with the Saints offense. Matt Ryan and his receivers should be able to put up some offense, but the RBs need to help as well.


The team could also use a pass rusher because Jamaal Anderson turned out to be a huge bust. They will definitely have to address that in the second round. The Falcons need to be able to get to the QB better if they want to overtake the Saints and win the NFC South next year. Peria Jerry was hurt for most of last year, and if he can make an impact, it will be a huge help for this team that needs better DT play. The team was ranked 10th rushing defense last year, giving up 106.9 yards per game. The team needs to be dominant up front to stop the Saints Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush and the Panthers DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.


Atlanta had a horrible pass defense last year, but they have been addressing it during free agency. Tye Hill and Chris Houston are gone, and in comes the top free agent CB, Dunta Robinson. The team was 28th in passing defense last year, giving up 242 yards/game. A rookie CB next year will not make the difference, so the team decided it needed to go get a #1 CB in Robinson to try to stop the Saints in 2010. The team should draft a CB in an early round to start developing more talent and depth at the position because two or three quality CBs are now needed in the pass-heavy NFL.


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Thursday, October 7, 2010

2008 Carolina Panthers Draft Report


The Carolina Panthers played a disappointing season in 2007, though it was hardly the worst in the league. They did manage to upset some powerhouse teams like the 49ers and the Seahawks towards the end of the season. Will making some roster changes help the team back into playoff contention? You might discern the Panthers' chances in 2008 by taking a careful look at the NFL Draft. The team was looking for a major league playmaker this year.

The team started the draft by selecting running back Jonathan Stewart from Oregon, and then offensive tackle Jeff Otah from Pittsburgh. Both players were first round picks and relatively early overall, at 13th and 19th respectively. The team also selected two third round picks in cornerback Charles Godfrey from Iowa and linebacker Dan Connor from Penn State. The fifth round pick went to tight end Gary Barnidge from Louisville, and sixth round pick to defensive tackle Nick Hayden from Wisconsin. For the final round there were three players: line backer Hilee Taylor from the University of North Carolina, offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz from Oregon and offensive guard Mackenzy Bernadeau from Bentley.

This appears to be the "last chance" for the Panthers' current management administration and for much of the roster. 2007 was forgivable due to the absence of prominent players like quarterback Jake Delhomme. However, in the new season it's time to for the Panthers to prove themselves. The draft selections of 2008 will play an important role in determining the team's success. First pick Jonathan Stewart has received accolades for his abilities and has been called a multi-dimensional player who has the gift of size, speed and experience. The biggest question on Stewart is his long-term durability, since he is injury prone. How did the team manage to get two first round picks? They had to trade next year's #1 pick to do it, but the team did manage to land offensive tackle Jeff Otah. Otah was impressive physically, weighing over 300 pounds and standing 6'6. He also combined strength and athleticism in one total package. However, experts are cautious about Otah's level of experience, as he didn't start playing football until his senior year of high school. While Otah is seen as a raw player, he does still have great potential.

Charles Godfrey was seen as a player with great depth, as he brought a lot of speed and quickness to his position, while Dan Conner won even bigger praise for his aggressive style and excellent range. Hilee Taylor, Nick Hayden and Gary Barnidge also received some praise by NFL experts. All in all, most fans would describe the 2008 draft as a risk-but a highly calculated risk that provided value players as well as high impact players and promising backup players. This is a very good draft play, especially considering that the team didn't have a lot of holes to fill going into 2008. This is definitely the make or break year of the current Panthers generation and so far, the draft looks promising.








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Wednesday, October 6, 2010

The University of Oregon Football

Notable Players In History


Dan Fouts


Fouts is one of the greatest QB's to ever play at Oregon. Back when he played for Oregon the conference was called the All-PAC 8. He set 19 different passing records during his playing days in Eugene. He holds the record for both passing yards & total offense. Fouts was inducted into the the University of Oregon Hall of Fame in 1992.


Not only was Fouts a great college QB he was also a great NFL QB too. He was drafted in the 3rd round in 1973 by the San Diego Chargers. After being drafted, he led the league on 4 separate occasions in passing yards. He was selected to the Pro Bowl 6 times. These numbers also led Founts into the Pro Football Hall of Fame back in 1993.


Gary Zimmerman


Zimmerman is a former offensive lineman for the Ducks. He didn't take the traditional route to the NFL though. He was instead selected in the USFL draft in 1984. He went on to play two season for the Los Angeles Express. One of his teammates was Steve Young.


In 1986, Zimmerman joined the Vikings. He spent 7 seasons in Minnesota. His next & final NFL stop was in Denver. He played a total of 5 seasons there giving him a total of 12 seasons in the NFL.


Over those 12 NFL years, he played in a total of 184 games. He retired from the NFL in 1997. He was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2008. He joins five other former USFL players as a group to be elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.


Mel Renfro


Renfro is a former halfback & defensive back at Oregon. Not only did he play football at Oregon, he was also a track star. He was an All-American halfback selection during his days at Oregon. He rushed for over 1500 yards & scored 141 points in three seasons during his college days. Renfro was selected into the College Football Hall of Fame in 1986.


He went on to be drafted by the Dallas Cowboys in the 2nd round of the 1964 NFL Draft. He spent his entire NFL career in Dallas. He played defensive back his entire career but played at both the safety & cornerback position. However, after 5 seasons at safety, he was switched to cornerback due to his speed.


He accumulated 52 interceptions during his NFL career. He made the Pro Bowl in each of his first 10 seasons in the NFL. He was also a great special teams player with duties of punt & kick returns. He ended his playing days when Dallas won Super Bowl XII over the Broncos.


Akili Smith


Akili Smith is a former 1st round NFL draft pick of the Cincinnati Bengals. However, his NFL career didn't turn out as expected. During his 4 years with the Bengals, Smith never really lived up to his draft status. His NFL time came to an end after the 2005 season.


Jonathan Stewart (current NFL player)


Stewart is a current NFL player for the Carolina Panthers. He too is a former first round pick taken in 2008 draft. He was one of the highest rated recruits out of high school before coming to Oregon. He spent 3 seasons at Oregon before going into the NFL draft. He currently gets considerable playing time at running back for the Panthers.


Writer and editor, Freddie Brister, is a former high school coach. Check out his Oregon Ducks Watch or his Tampa Bay Devil Rays Watch

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